Greece: Moody's improves outlook, Scope at BBB+

On Saturday 19 September 2026, two international rating agencies took separate actions on Greece’s credit profile, actions that much of the press presented collectively as a ‘double upgrade’. However, the precise picture differs between the two agencies and warrants clarification. Moody’s changed Greece’s outlook from stable to positive while leaving the rating unchanged at Baa3 — this is to say a change in outlook rather than an upgrade of the rating itself. Scope Ratings, by contrast, proceeded with an actual upgrade, raising Greece’s rating from BBB to BBB+, a level to which, according to Protothema, the country returns for the first time in 17 years.

Moody’s outlook change was accompanied by specific economic figures. Greece’s public debt stood at 143.5% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026, down 9.4 percentage points compared to the corresponding quarter of 2025. The agency estimates that this figure will fall to approximately 136% by the end of 2026 and to 120% by 2030. In parallel, the country undertook early debt repayments of EUR 5.3 billion in 2025, with further repayments of EUR 13 billion planned through the end of 2026, while primary surpluses were maintained. Moody’s linked these developments to economic and institutional reforms that strengthened the country’s fiscal resilience, with strong fiscal performance, faster debt reduction than expected, and economic conditions better than forecast.

The two actions concern how international investors and institutional players assess the borrowing risk of the Greek state, as both outlook and rating are taken into account when pricing Greek bonds in international markets. Prime Minister Kyriakos Mitsotakis commented on the developments, stating according to Greek Reporter that they confirm ‘the correctness of the government’s policy’ and the ongoing progress of the Greek economy. The ratings themselves, however, do not automatically entail a change in borrowing costs, which is shaped by a broader set of factors in international debt markets.

Attention on the country’s credit trajectory now shifts to the next scheduled ratings. Standard & Poor’s is expected to announce its rating on Friday 23 October 2026, while Fitch has scheduled its rating announcement for Friday 6 November 2026. Until then, no forecasts are being made about the content of the next ratings. More on the course of the Greek economy and developments at the national level can be found on the Greece page.