Inflation at 3.4% in July

Annual inflation stood at 3.4% in July 2026, according to figures from the Consumer Price Index released by the Greek Statistical Authority. The change reflects comparison of the general index for July 2026 with the corresponding month of 2025 and is higher than last year’s corresponding comparison, which showed an increase of 3.1%. This is the basic measure by which the change in cost of living is captured on an annual basis.

On a monthly basis the picture differs: compared to June 2026 the index fell by 1.4%. The 12-month average from August 2025 to July 2026 increased by 3.3%, compared to 2.6% in the previous corresponding 12-month period—a figure that smooths seasonal fluctuations and indicates acceleration over a one-year horizon. These three numbers answer different questions and are not contradictory to each other, despite moving in opposite directions.

By category of goods and services, the largest annual increases were recorded in Housing at 8.8% and Transport at 7.4%. These were followed by Hotels, Cafes and Restaurants at 5.8%, Insurance and financial services at 3.4% and Education at 2.8%. The two first categories are those that weigh most heavily on household budgets, as they concern non-compressible expenditures: a household can defer a purchase, but can hardly reduce rent or commuting costs.

At the product level, ELSTAT recorded annual increases of 53.2% in heating oil, 22.1% in motor fuel, 16.7% in natural gas and 13.3% in fuels. For food, beef increased by 14.3% and lamb by 12.4%, while rents rose by 6.8% and vacation packages by 6.2%. Energy sector performance largely explains the difference between Housing and other categories.

Conversely, two staple products declined notably: olive oil recorded a 21.7% annual decrease and fruit 9.4%. These changes act as a counterweight in the general index, though without reversing the picture, since they represent a smaller share of total spending than housing and transport. The practical result is that two households with different consumption patterns can experience inflation rates very different from the official average.

The index measures price changes and not levels, which explains why a lower annual increase does not mean return of prices to previous levels. No breakdown of each category’s contribution to the general index has been announced, nor figures for the harmonized index used in European comparisons. In meat, the increases coincide with pressures on livestock, for which compensations were recently given, but no causal relationship has been established.

Future Consumer Price Index figures will show whether the July monthly decline was seasonal or signals a broader trend, especially in energy and housing categories where the most pronounced increases are observed. ELSTAT publishes data on a monthly basis, so comparison will be feasible soon. No forecast emerges from the current announcement, which is limited to recording the specific month’s changes.